Futures Thinking and Foresight – TUSAS
Turkish Aerospace (TA) is at the forefront of future technologies, employing Foresight Analysis methodologies to assess technology concepts, systems, and sub-technologies. The objective of Future Thinking and Foresight Analysis is to craft technology policies that promote a competitive edge in the aerospace and defense sectors. This is accomplished by dissecting possible, plausible, probable, and preferable future scenarios through a structured approach, utilizing a suite of techniques to pinpoint the driving forces of tomorrow, evaluate their implications, and unveil the technologies that will define the future.
To understand future trends and uncertainties, TA develops methodologies that highlight both weak and strong signals. The company executes comprehensive scenario analyses to forecast advancements in technology and upcoming directions. Moreover, TA innovates methodologies and analytical tools tailored for technology foresight processes and organizes programs, events, and training to promote a culture of Future Thinking with the aim of bolstering the sector’s future outlook. Notably, training programs are offered to both internal employees and as an undergraduate course at universities, named “Futures Literacy and Foresight Analysis”.
TA leverages both internal and external resources to implement Foresight methodologies effectively. Collaborative technology foresight and future workshop activities engage national and international stakeholders. The insights derived from foresight analyses are compiled into reports and shared with relevant authorities within and beyond the company. Notably, TA participated in the development of methodologies for the GHOST (Technologies Shaping the Operational Environment of the Future) scenario competition, initiated in 2023 by the Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye and the Secretariat of Defense Industries (SSB). This unique competition focuses on identifying the defense technologies primed for future investments while also uncovering potential new technologies and concepts that may have been previously overlooked. Additionally, Foresight methodologies were integral to the GREAT (Future Competitive Education and Research Technologies) Future Workshop process organized in 2024 under the auspices of SSB in collaboration with SSB Academy and TA. The workshop aims to evaluate the future potential and impact of educational technologies, contributing insights for medium and long-term visioning and action plans based on trend analyses.
Identification of weak signals, technology trends, mega trends, and future scenarios is facilitated through Foresight Analysis activities at TA, with findings recorded and disseminated via the Information Center, a digital platform designed to propagate the knowledge and insights obtained from these analyses across the company.
To enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of the Technology Foresight processes, TA has adopted a framework focused on the design and development of methodologies, advanced analytical tools, and integrated systems, ensuring alignment with the company’s Technology Roadmap as identified technology areas are explored.
Ultimately, through Future Thinking and Foresight, TA is capable of pinpointing technologies, alternative future scenarios, and projections that may influence national interests. This strategic approach facilitates planning and networking initiatives, uniting various stakeholders through structured collaborative efforts.
